Climate Change - We May Not Know The Impact Yet

Deforestation
Recently published research has raised the possibility of temperatures rising by 4 to 5 degrees C even if current emission reductions targets are met. This can happen if a critical threshold is crossed and several tipping points lead to abrupt change  - Photo by Marcin Kempa on Unsplash
On last Monday 13th August 2018, a study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences argues , on excessively hot days, there are more likely to be fatal car accidents and food safety problems, and police officers and government food inspectors tends to do less of their duties.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Scientists who analyzed data from across the United States, suggest that if the climate continues to change, by 2050-- and in another 50 or so years beyond that -- our world may be less safe than it is today.
Nick Obradovich, co-author of the study and a research scientist of MIT's Media Lab said,
The crux of the idea- which is that weather affects how we perform our duties and how we go about our daily lives and the risks that we experience -- is indeed simplistic.

Projections Vs Pace and Impact of Climate Change


While earlier projections of the pace and impact of climate change were also considered to be worrying, many senior scientists are now warning and the data suggests that climate change may in fact turn out to be faster and its impacts bigger than the commonly accepted projections made earlier. At present the average global temperature is around 1 degree C higher than pre-industrial levels, enough for alarm bells to start ringing loud and clear, and raising at the rate of 0.17 degree C per decade. The debate has been so far mainly centered around whether humanity will be able to restrict global temperatures to levels which at the most 2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

However recently published research has raised the possibility of temperatures rising by 4 to 5 degrees C even if current emission reductions targets are met. This can happen if a critical threshold is crossed and several tipping points lead to abrupt change. Such processes include the loss of arctic summer ice, reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets, permanent frost thaw, loss of methane hydrates from ocean floor and weaker land and ocean carbon sinks. Johan Rockstrom co-author of another report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said
These tipping elements can act like a row of dominoes from tumbling over. Places on earth will become uninhabitable if 'hothouse earth' becomes the reality.
Rockstrom further said,
We are the ones in control now. But once we get past two degrees, we see that the Earth tips from being friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.

Critical Point of Climate Change


In other words beyond a point of global warning the friendly systems

Climate Change
Photo by Matt Howard on Unsplash
which protect us can themselves change and turn hostile so that then global warming and related changes will spiral out of control, perhaps reaching around 4 to 5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This will not only lead to intolerably hot conditions in many parts of world but also a sea level rise beyond anything foreseen so far, submerging vast areas in water.

These scientists have said that to avoid such frightening possibilities we have to reduce emissions of course but in addition we also have to create new carbon stores, particularly by increasing forest cover. At a broader level we have to move from exploration towards stewardship of earth.
 
The findings concerns a future several decades ahead, but it was invariably taken into consideration in the context of extreme weather events seen just before the findings of the report. This year extreme heat wave conditions including vast wildfires have been seen in many countries spread over a very wide area. Eighteen wildfires swept across California. Fires in coastal area near Athens killed 91 people. about 125 people died in a heatwave in Japan as temperature rose above 40 degree C in Tokyo for the first time. There are so many conditions we are observing daily basis which are happening all over the world.

Awareness of Climate Change


Despite the fact  that public perception of climate change as a serious threat has grown - 61 per cent of people saw this as a big threat in a poll held in 36 countries in 2017 - actual action to check climate change has remained weak.
Three years after the Paris Climate Accord greenhouse gas emissions were up again. Investments in the oil and gas were also on the rise. For the first time in four years demand to coal rise in 2017. At the same time subsidies for renewable were dwindling in many places and investments had stalled. On the whole the prospects for moving away from fossil fuel-led energy growth remained bleak.

Dubious Claims


Even some of the success stories were turning out to dubious.

The one million plus electric cars were held out as progress towards clean energy from an electric grid that gets two third of its power from coal and the net result is likely to be more carbon dioxide emission compared to fuel efficient petrol cars.

Political Concerns


What is more, the possibilities of getting the promised financial help from rich countries to facilitate rapid progress towards climate change mitigation and adaptation in poorer countries are getting much weaker and under the watch of Donald Trump the support may simply not be there to any significant extent at least from the richest donor.


Final Thought


At the end of the various studies, the point is not scare people but to understand  what the effects of extreme temperatures may be. It is therefore very important to make a very clear appraisal of the threat and determine how equal humanity is to the challenge based on current preparations and projections for the near future.

preparation and projection for future
Photo by MItodru Ghosh on Unsplash
Such an appraisal should involve the best available expertise on this subject from the sides of governance as well as public action. This group should place a comprehensive and updated report on the issue before humanity and also a plan of action which includes not just scientific solutions but also what needs to be done in the critical areas of governance and public action.
      
                                 
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